Damned Lies and Statistics?
Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 7:00AM As January is about to (thankfully) sod off and become February, it's time to start focusing on the top-half finish that's needed for qualification into next season's FA Cup competition. As I did last season, I'll use some circuitous mathematics pointed out to me by a friend of mine. So, if you find all of this a bit much, blame a chap called Geoff Gibson and/or go and do something less boring instead.
Below are two tables created using the wizardry available at one's disposal when using Microsoft Excel. Both hopefully lend some insight into the "real" position of the teams in Division One, levelling out the uneven number of games played across the 16 teams.
This first one uses the average number of points gained per match and projects that to a total for the end of the season based on number of matches remaining. We have 17 points from 14 matches, an average of 1.21 points per match; times that by 18 (games left to play) and you get our projected finishing total of 39 points. Got that? Go to the top of the class.
As you can see, our top-half finish is somewhat in jeopardy at the moment but all it would take is a slight improvement in our average points-per-match rate, which admittedly wasn't helped by our recent 3 point penalty. Turning some draws into wins would go a long way and all.
The other thing to look at is possible number of points. This is a bit more agricultural as it doesn't take into account the fact that teams actually take points from each other but it still gives a rough-as-bear's-arse pointer.
What's noticeable from both tables is that one team stands out at this moment in time: Stone Dominoes; their points-per-match ratio is head-and-shoulders above anybody else's. One thing the 'Possible Points' table does show is that AFC Liverpool have the potential to still make up a lot of ground.
There's a long way to go yet but I hope that has been of some use. I'll publish them again nearer Easter as we start to get to the pointy end of the season.
Comments? Thoughts? Musings? Or do you not care? :-)
Reader Comments (4)
An interesting exercise but completely irrelevant. We all know that logic plays little part in this game and whilst Mr. Gibson's tables might have some entertainment value they cannot take into account all those things that might happen.
Manager replaced, new player brought in who acts as a catalyst, key player lost, several injuries, etc.
The fact that both these tables have Ashton Town third from bottom has no bearing on this post whatsoever. Honest!!
So, you're an advocate of the theory peddled by a certain Danny Baker that football isn't a precise science?
Mind you, so am I - the statistician in me just couldn't resist!
I hang a small part of my hat on these tables, though, because when I did this at the latter third of last season, the actual tables ended up not far off what was "predicted" at the time. It'd be interesting to see how the Div One table ends up compared to the "projected points" one as it stands now.
Although i am prepared to admit that this is an exercise to convince myself that CTFC are heading for a top-half finish! :-D
Thanks for your comments. Always appreciated.
I do hope it's a [i]small[/i] part of your hat!!
Stone and Barnoldswick are close, as is Rochdale and Oldham in one table.
Certain others are pretty wide of the mark but it's interesting to see how they compare with the current table. Unfortunately for you, you got third from bottom wrong. Are you getting those points back or not?
Then again there's another investigation under way. Spanner in the works or what?
Blimey, had almost forgotten about these!
If ever there was proof that football isn't a precise science, this is it. The points-per-game table here tells its own story i.e the rotten runs that Wigan Robin Park and ourselves went on in February and March completely knackered us.
I don't think we'll be getting those points back which is absolutely scandalous seeing as how we had - as far as I know - a successful appeal to have them re-instated.